IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.7	#75
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.3	#229
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.2	#91

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.5	#64

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.8%	0.8%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	2.8%	2.9%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	5.5%	5.8%	0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	30.9%	32.0%	13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	15.3%	16.1%	3.3%
Average Seed	9.7	9.6	11.7

.500 or above	90.6%	91.8%	69.5%
.500 or above in Conference	87.8%	88.7%	73.4%
Conference Champion	23.7%	24.4%	10.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.5%	2.0%

First Four	3.4%	3.5%	1.2%
First Round	29.2%	30.2%	12.6%
Second Round	12.7%	13.3%	3.2%
Sweet Sixteen	4.9%	5.1%	1.0%
Elite Eight	1.8%	1.9%	0.2%
Final Four	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Neutral) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 3	11 - 8
Quad 4	7 - 1	18 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	312	New Orleans	W	82-65	94%
Nov 25, 2020	77	Wichita St.	W	71-70	51%
Dec 12, 2020	256	@ Weber St.	W	75-64	83%
Dec 15, 2020	337	Dixie St.	W	74-49	99%
Dec 21, 2020	282	San Jose St.	W	86-68	94%
Dec 23, 2020	282	San Jose St.	W	86-68	94%
Dec 31, 2020	225	@ Air Force	W	78-69	78%
Jan 02, 2021	225	@ Air Force	W	78-69	78%
Jan 07, 2021	180	@ New Mexico	W	78-72	70%
Jan 09, 2021	180	@ New Mexico	W	78-72	69%
Jan 14, 2021	36	San Diego St.	L	66-67	48%
Jan 16, 2021	36	San Diego St.	L	66-67	49%
Jan 20, 2021	112	Colorado St.	W	78-71	72%
Jan 22, 2021	112	Colorado St.	W	78-71	72%
Jan 25, 2021	102	@ UNLV	W	71-70	51%
Jan 27, 2021	102	@ UNLV	W	71-70	51%
Feb 04, 2021	150	@ Fresno St.	W	69-65	63%
Feb 06, 2021	150	@ Fresno St.	W	69-65	64%
Feb 11, 2021	169	Wyoming	W	73-62	83%
Feb 13, 2021	169	Wyoming	W	73-62	82%
Feb 18, 2021	86	@ Boise St.	L	71-73	45%
Feb 20, 2021	86	@ Boise St.	L	71-73	45%
Feb 25, 2021	104	Nevada	W	78-72	70%
Feb 27, 2021	104	Nevada	W	78-72	69%
Projected Record						17 - 7	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.7	2.4	4.7	6.0	5.5	3.2	1.0		23.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.8	4.6	6.1	5.1	2.2	0.5	0.0			20.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.1	5.3	5.2	2.8	0.8	0.1					16.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.5	2.4	4.9	3.6	1.3	0.2	0.0						12.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.1	3.6	2.2	0.6	0.0								9.0	5th
6th								0.1	0.4	1.7	2.7	1.4	0.3	0.0									6.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	1.7	0.9	0.1											4.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.1												2.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0													1.6	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1															0.9	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	2.0	3.4	4.4	6.2	8.0	9.8	11.4	11.8	11.6	10.6	8.3	6.0	3.2	1.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
19-1	99.4%	3.2		3.1	0.1	0.0
18-2	92.5%	5.5		4.5	1.0	0.0
17-3	72.5%	6.0		4.4	1.5	0.1
16-4	44.3%	4.7		2.4	2.0	0.3	0.0
15-5	21.1%	2.4		0.9	1.1	0.4	0.1
14-6	6.1%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	23.7%	23.7		16.4	6.0	1.0	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.0%		99.2%	62.8%	36.4%	3.1		0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0									0.0		97.8%
19-1	3.2%		98.3%	52.4%	45.9%	5.2		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		96.4%
18-2	6.0%		91.3%	44.6%	46.7%	7.6			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.0				0.5		84.3%
17-3	8.3%		73.5%	33.7%	39.9%	9.7					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.1	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.1				2.2		60.1%
16-4	10.6%		56.7%	29.7%	27.1%	10.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.8	1.9	0.3	0.0	0.0		4.6		38.5%
15-5	11.6%		32.6%	22.1%	10.5%	11.7								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0		7.8		13.5%
14-6	11.8%		20.3%	17.6%	2.7%	12.2										0.0	0.1	0.3	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0		9.4		3.3%
13-7	11.4%		11.3%	10.5%	0.7%	12.6											0.0	0.0	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0		10.1		0.8%
12-8	9.8%		9.1%	8.9%	0.2%	13.0												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	8.9		0.2%
11-9	8.0%		6.3%	6.3%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	7.5
10-10	6.2%		3.2%	3.2%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1		6.0
9-11	4.4%		2.0%	2.0%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	4.3
8-12	3.4%		1.9%	1.9%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.4
7-13	2.0%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
6-14	1.2%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
5-15	0.7%																							0.7
4-16	0.3%																							0.3
3-17	0.1%																							0.1
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		30.9%	18.5%	12.4%	9.7		0.3	0.5	0.7	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.7	2.9	3.6	5.1	6.6	2.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	69.1		15.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	2.1	36.6	29.8	16.8	16.5		0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	3.0	33.7	3.0	17.8	17.8	26.7	1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	4.4	1.3	5.1	32.9	12.7	24.1	12.7	11.4